Growing at 4.2% per annum India will overtake China as the largest energy market by early 2030s, according to this week released BP Energy Outlook 2018.
India’s overall energy demand growth of 165% will be the largest one in the world. This is more than the combined growth of several countries, or some continents put together.
“India’s slowing in demand growth is less pronounced and by the early 2030s it overtakes China as the world’s fastest growing market for energy,” the report said.
Among the rest of the nations, with 41% growth prospects China tops the list. According to the Outlook, India’s energy consumption will rise to 1,921 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2,040 from 724 Mtoe in 2016. This will mean that the country’s share of global energy demand will rise to 11% by 2040 from 5% in 2016.
Between 2035 and 2040 alone, India’s demand growth will be more than 2.5 times that of China, representing more than a third of the global increase.
The rise in India’s energy demand will be supported by continued robust economic growth, partially offset by quicker declines in energy intensity.
Coal demand within India and other emerging Asian economies will increase, as these economies will continue to industrialize and electrify their economies.
“India is the largest growth market for coal, with its share of global coal demand more than doubling from a little over 10% in 2016 to around a quarter by 2040.”
The Outlook says in the ‘evolving transition scenario’ – accounting for around two-thirds of the growth, the majority of increased energy will be consumed in Asia, while energy demand within Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will remain flat. ‘Evolving transition’ scenario assumes that government policies, technologies, and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past.
The Outlooks notes that the largest increases in solar energy will be in China and India, where renewable energy receives significant levels of support over the medium term.
