Energizing tomorrow: Navigating global electricity transformation

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Synopsis Electricity’s role in the 21st century is being reshaped by rising global demand, the push for decarbonization, and technological innovations. Emerging economies like India and China are driving growth with industrial expansion and increased access to electricity, while regions like sub-Saharan Africa struggle with limited energy access. The digital revolution, including data centres, AI, and cryptocurrency mining, is becoming a significant electricity consumer. The renewable energy sector, led by solar and wind, is growing rapidly, although coal remains a challenge in some regions. Geopolitical factors, such as China’s dominance in renewables and the resurgence of nuclear power, are influencing global energy transitions. Emerging technologies like advanced battery storage and AI-driven grid management hold promise for improving grid efficiency, addressing supply-demand issues, and supporting a sustainable electricity future. Image courtesy: IEA

Electricity is the foundation of modern civilization, powering industries, homes, and the burgeoning digital economy. As we move deeper into the 21st century, electricity’s role is evolving, driven by increasing demand and urgent climate imperatives. Global energy transitions, punctuated by the rise of renewables and emerging technologies, are rewriting the rules of electricity generation, consumption, and governance.

However, this transformation is far from straightforward. Rising demand from emerging economies contrasts starkly with energy inequality in regions like sub-Saharan Africa. Advanced economies face challenges such as industrial stagnation and grid reliability. Meanwhile, the digital revolution—powered by data centres, artificial intelligence (AI), and cryptocurrency mining — is emerging as a major consumer of electricity.

This article delves into these dynamics, integrating insights from the International Energy Agency (IEA) alongside recent developments to offer a comprehensive view of the electricity sector's present and future.

Global demand growth: Uneven but unstoppable

Electricity demand is increasing worldwide, albeit unevenly. While advanced economies are seeing plateauing or even declining consumption, emerging markets continue to grow at breakneck speed.

Emerging economies: Growth engines: Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are the engines of global electricity demand. China and India stand out as leaders.

• China’s Scale: In 2023, China recorded a 6.4% rise in electricity demand, fuelled by industrial activity, services, and residential consumption. The country’s ongoing investments in solar manufacturing and electric vehicle (EV) production underpin this growth.
• India’s Speed: India is growing even faster, with annual demand set to rise by 6.5% through 2026. This rapid increase is driven by rising living standards, greater access to electricity, and increasing use of cooling systems. By the end of the decade, India will add demand equivalent to the current electricity consumption of the United Kingdom.

However, growth in these nations comes with challenges. While China transitions to renewable sources, its continued reliance on coal-fired power to meet demand poses sustainability concerns. In India, expanding grid infrastructure and addressing regional disparities remain critical tasks.

Africa: The persistent energy divide

Africa’s electricity story is one of unmet potential. Despite being home to 20% of the world’s population, the continent accounts for just 3% of global electricity consumption. Per capita electricity use has stagnated for decades, and over 600 million Africans remain without power.

Renewables, especially solar, present a pathway forward. Countries like Kenya and Ghana have adopted decentralized solutions such as solar home systems (SHS). Yet, much more is needed. The IEA estimates that Africa requires over $190 billion annually in energy investments to achieve universal access by 2030 — a stark contrast to current spending levels.

The digital revolution: A new force in electricity demand

The digital economy has emerged as a powerful driver of electricity consumption, reshaping energy systems in profound ways. Data centres, cryptocurrency mining, and AI applications are among the most energy-intensive sectors.

Data centres and AI: Data centres alone consumed 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022 — more than the total electricity use of the United Kingdom. This figure is expected to double by 2026 as data-driven technologies, particularly AI, continue to expand.

AI training models, such as those used for machine learning, require immense computational resources. Companies like Google and Microsoft are addressing these demands by investing in renewable energy and energy-efficient cooling technologies. Nevertheless, the digital sector’s growing energy footprint highlights the importance of sustainable innovation.

Cryptocurrency mining: Cryptocurrency mining, particularly Bitcoin, is another significant contributor to electricity demand. Mining operations often concentrate in regions with cheap electricity, such as parts of North America and Central Asia. However, regulatory actions in countries like China have forced the sector to adapt, with miners increasingly shifting toward greener practices.

The renewable revolution: Transforming the energy mix

Renewables are at the heart of the global electricity transition. By 2025, renewables are set to overtake coal as the largest source of electricity, contributing 37% of global generation by 2026.

Solar and wind’s ascendancy: Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power are driving this revolution. The cost of solar panels has fallen by over 80% in the past decade, while wind turbines — both onshore and offshore — are reaching new heights in efficiency and deployment.

China leads global renewable capacity additions, while India is ramping up solar installations under its National Solar Mission. Europe and North America are also expanding wind and solar capacities, though at a slower pace.

Hydropower: the backbone under threat: Hydropower remains a critical source of renewable electricity, accounting for nearly 16% of global generation. However, it faces increasing challenges due to climate change. In 2023, droughts severely impacted hydropower output in regions like California, Brazil, and Southeast Asia. These disruptions underscore the need to diversify renewable portfolios and enhance system resilience.

The nuclear resurgence: Nuclear power is making a comeback, driven by its ability to provide stable, low-carbon electricity. By 2025, nuclear generation is expected to reach record highs, with China, India, and South Korea leading new capacity additions. Innovations such as small modular reactors (SMRs) promise to make nuclear more adaptable and cost-effective, offering a complement to variable renewable sources like wind and solar.

Challenges in decarbonizing electricity

The electricity sector is a major contributor to global CO₂ emissions, but it is also at the forefront of decarbonization efforts. By 2026, the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation is expected to fall below 60% for the first time, marking significant progress.

Regional Progress and Setbacks

• Europe: The EU is leading the way, achieving a 13% annual improvement in emissions intensity through renewables, efficiency measures, and reduced industrial activity.
• China and the U.S.: Both nations are making strides, but their reliance on coal and gas, respectively, presents ongoing challenges.
• Southeast Asia: Coal remains a dominant energy source, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to support clean energy transitions in countries like Indonesia and Vietnam.

Europe’s energy crossroads

Europe exemplifies the complexities of transitioning to a sustainable energy future. While the continent has made significant strides in renewable adoption, it faces challenges in maintaining industrial competitiveness and energy affordability.

High costs and industrial relocation

Europe’s energy-intensive industries, such as steel and chemicals, have been hit hard by rising electricity prices. Some companies have relocated operations to regions with cheaper energy, raising concerns about deindustrialization. However, innovations in green manufacturing, such as hydrogen-based steelmaking, offer hope for a competitive, low-carbon industrial future.

Household affordability

Household electricity prices remain elevated in Europe, driven by high wholesale energy costs. Governments are introducing price caps and subsidies, but these are short-term solutions. Long-term strategies must focus on energy efficiency and distributed renewable systems to ensure affordability.

The geopolitics of electricity

Energy transitions are deeply intertwined with geopolitics. From supply chain dependencies to international climate agreements, external factors shape the electricity sector in profound ways.

China’s dominance in renewables

China’s dominance in solar PV and battery manufacturing highlights both opportunities and risks. While it has driven down costs globally, it has also created dependencies that expose other nations to supply chain vulnerabilities. Efforts to diversify production, such as India’s solar manufacturing incentives, are critical for ensuring resilience.

Nuclear collaboration

At COP28 in 2023, over 20 countries pledged to triple global nuclear power capacity by 2050. This reflects the growing recognition of nuclear energy as a tool for balancing energy security with decarbonization goals.

Emerging technologies: The next frontier

Innovation is key to addressing the electricity sector’s most pressing challenges. Advanced batteries, AI-driven grid management, and decentralized energy systems are among the transformative solutions on the horizon.

Battery storage: Solid-state and flow batteries are set to revolutionize energy storage, enabling greater integration of renewables. These technologies also promise enhanced grid stability in regions prone to supply-demand imbalances.

AI and smart grids: AI is transforming electricity systems, from optimizing power distribution to enabling real-time demand response. Smart grids, powered by AI, offer resilience and efficiency, empowering both consumers and utilities.

Decentralized systems: Decentralized energy systems, such as microgrids and solar home solutions, are expanding access in underserved regions. These technologies are particularly impactful in areas with limited centralized infrastructure, such as sub-Saharan Africa.

Building a sustainable electricity future

The electricity sector stands at a pivotal juncture. Balancing growing demand with sustainability and security requires bold leadership, innovation, and collaboration. As nations and industries navigate this complex transition, the choices made today will shape the future of energy for generations to come.

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